Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
China’s economic growth decelerated to 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, marking the slowest expansion in 18 months. Gross domestic product (GDP) recorded in the three months to June stood at 4.7%.
This slowdown heightens fears that the nation might fall short of its 5% growth target for the year. The property sector’s ongoing crisis and weak domestic consumption continue to weigh heavily on the recovery.
Although Beijing has implemented stimulus measures to boost the economy by focusing on banks and money supply, their impact has been muted so far. The property sector, accounting for nearly a third of the Chinese economy, remains in deep distress. In addition, export demand has softened due to global economic uncertainties, further dampening growth prospects. Only industrial output has shown resilience.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said when publishing the quarterly data that the country faces “new circumstances and new problems in the domestic economic operation,” but highlighted that “most production and demand indicators improved in September.”
Despite the announced stimulus measures, analysts doubt that Beijing will achieve its growth target of 5% this year. Bruce Pang, Chief Economist at JLL, told Reuters the stimulus package “will take time and patience to boost growth over the next several quarters.”
The deputy head of the NBS, Sheng Laiyun, however, is confident. “Based on our comprehensive assessment, the economy in the fourth quarter is expected to continue the stabilisation and recovery trend that occurred in September. We are fully confident in achieving the full-year target,” he told reporters.
Goldman Sachs, in a research note last week, said the stimulus measures indicate that “policymakers have made a turn on cyclical policy management and increased their focus on the economy.” The investment bank raised its China growth forecast to 4.9% from 4.7% for 2024.
All eyes are now on an upcoming National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting in late October or early November to see if China announces more specific fiscal stimulus.
