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If forced to choose between China and the United States, over half of Southeast Asians would now prefer to align with the People’s Republic. This is the result of the State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey, conducted annually by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS—Yusof Ishak Institute.
According to the survey, China has experienced a surge in popularity among ASEAN respondents, climbing from 38.9% last year to 50.5% this year. In particular, people from Malaysia (75.1%), Indonesia (73.2%), Laos (70.6%), Brunei (70.1%), and Thailand (52.2%) would side with China. “Notably, Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia, which have benefitted significantly from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and robust trade and investment relations, witnessed a remarkable increase of more than 20 percentage points in their preference for China compared to 2023,” the study observed.
Conversely, the US has experienced a decrease in its popularity, falling from 61.1% last year to 49.5% this year. The Philippines (83.3%), Vietnam (79.0%), Singapore (61.5%), Myanmar (57.7%), and Cambodia (55.0%) still favour the largest economy of the world. Support from the Philippines even grew, reflecting the closer alliance with the US in addressing China’s aggression in the South China Sea.
Since the annual survey started asking the question in 2020, it marks the first time Beijing surpassed Washington.
However, the survey revealed that Southeast Asians prefer not to take sides. When questioned on how ASEAN should react to the escalating rivalry between the US and China, only 8% believed that the bloc must pick a side due to the impracticality of staying neutral. Meanwhile, 46.8% advocated for ASEAN to focus on strengthening its resilience and unity as a strategy to withstand pressures from both the superpowers.
At the same time, half of the respondents (50.1%) expressed distrust towards China, with 45.5% of them fearing that China could use its economic and military power to threaten their country’s interests and sovereignty. Japan remains the most trusted major power among Southeast Asians (58.9%). The US comes in a distant second (42.4%), closely followed by the EU (41.5%).
In January and February of this year, the survey garnered responses from 1,994 Southeast Asians. It aimed to capture the current sentiments among those in a position to inform or influence policy on regional issues. Hence, participants represented various sectors, including the private sector, the government, academia, think tanks and research institutions, media, non-governmental organisations, and other regional or international bodies.
