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Despite the recent rise in Covid-19 cases following the first easing of the zero-Covid policy, China is opening up further and lifting the quarantine rule for travellers. As of 8 January, travellers entering the country will no longer have to undergo 8-day isolation, but will only have to show a negative Covid test result that is no more than 48 hours old. China is thus well on its way to completely abandoning the three-year self-imposed global isolation.
Monday’s announcement by China’s National Health Commission led to a surge in searches for overseas travel deals. According to Mafengwo, a Chinese travel services website, searches for overseas travel increased 460% on Tuesday morning compared to the same period the previous day. According to the website’s data, Bangkok, Tokyo, Chiang Mai, Singapore and Osaka are the most popular overseas destinations in searches.
Searches for overseas flights and hotels have reached a three-year high, according to Shanghai-based online travel company Trip.com. Japan, Thailand, South Korea, the US, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and the UK are the most searched regions, it said. Tongcheng Travel also currently sees Japan, South Korea and Thailand as the most popular searches from China.
China’s new rules
In addition to the removal of quarantine, regulations for foreigners to enter China for business purposes would also be improved and it would be easier to issue the required visas, the Chinese National Health Commission said. Current restrictions on the number of international flights between China and the rest of the world and passenger capacity would also be lifted.
The authority also downgraded the handling of the coronavirus from the most stringent category A to the less stringent category B. The Health Commission, however, said it would continue to monitor the spread of the virus and promised to take appropriate measures to suppress the peak of covid outbreaks.
China stopped publishing daily Covid-19 statistics on 25 December 2022. The WHO already expressed grave concern last week given the rapid rise in infections in the country.
Easing travel restrictions for China – good for the global economy?
Easing travel to and from China should benefit many countries around the world that rely on Chinese tourists. In 2019, the year before the pandemic, Chinese tourists spent around $255 bn globally, more than any other country in international tourism. Outside China, Thailand, Japan and Vietnam were the top 3 destinations for Chinese travellers in the same year.
However, these very countries are now showing caution, more specifically China’s neighbour Japan, which has now tightened regulations for travellers from China. As early as 30 December 2022, anyone coming from China or who has stayed there within the past seven days will have to be tested on arrival in Japan. In case of a positive test, a 7-day quarantine in a specified facility would be imposed. In addition, flights from China will be restricted.
For China, the removal of the quarantine could nevertheless mean an upswing, as tourism also plays a not insignificant role domestically: in 2019, the travel sector contributed around 11% to the gross domestic product (GDP).
However, the path of recovery is still uncertain because of the speed of China’s reopening and the rapid rise in infections. Experts see infections peaking in January 2023, when many people will travel again to celebrate Chinese New Year.
CMB International (CMBI), a wholly owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank, expects a “W”-shaped” recovery in Chinese household consumption now that the country has opened up further.
“At first, people will be worried about the infection with a decline of their mobility. As more and more people view the Omicron infection as a flu, people mobility will resume. Airline & railway transportation, caterings, hotels, tourism, apparel, cosmetics and medical product & service should recover rapidly, supporting the first wave of consumption recovery,” CMBI wrote.
